1/7/2021

The markets finally took the long, over-due breather today that we have been expecting. Coming out of the coffee break this morning, corn and beans both spiked lower as an immediate reaction to the export sales report. Corn export sales were reported within trade estimates at 749k metric tonnes but a poor number of 37k metric ton of beans vs. an expected minimum of 400k sent beans trading 19 lower and corn 8 lower at the day session open. This could be a sign of higher prices starting to be reflected in demand, although, despite the recent 70 cent rally, US corn remains the cheapest globally. Along with the weekly export sales report, grain markets were also pressured by a rebound in the dollar index and reports that planting in Argentina appears to be at a normal pace despite dry conditions. After the smoke cleared from the export sales report, funds continued to add to their long positions. Also offering some support was a daily sale announcement for beans; 213,350 tonnes for the 20/21 marketing year and 130,000 tonnes for the 21/22 marketing year, both to an unknown destination. I am expecting trade to stay range bound leading up to the WASDE report on Tuesday.