Grain > Commentary > 1-7-2021

1/7/2021

Jan 07, 2021

1/7/2021
The markets finally took the long, over-due breather today that we have been expecting. Coming out of the coffee break this morning, corn and beans both spiked lower as an immediate reaction to the export sales report. Corn export sales were reported within trade estimates at 749k metric tonnes but a poor number of 37k metric ton of beans vs. an expected minimum of 400k sent beans trading 19 lower and corn 8 lower at the day session open. This could be a sign of higher prices starting to be reflected in demand, although, despite the recent 70 cent rally, US corn remains the cheapest globally. Along with the weekly export sales report, grain markets were also pressured by a rebound in the dollar index and reports that planting in Argentina appears to be at a normal pace despite dry conditions. After the smoke cleared from the export sales report, funds continued to add to their long positions. Also offering some support was a daily sale announcement for beans; 213,350 tonnes for the 20/21 marketing year and 130,000 tonnes for the 21/22 marketing year, both to an unknown destination. I am expecting trade to stay range bound leading up to the WASDE report on Tuesday.

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.