Grain > Commentary > 1-6-2021

1/6/2021

Jan 06, 2021

1/6/2021
Another round of contract highs overnight and an 8am sale announcement of 4 million bushel of corn to an unknown destination but the biggest highlight was corn trading above the magical $5 level. The current market sentiment is extremely bullish and it’s important not to become complacent and assume everyday will be higher. Instead of attempting to guess the market top, evaluate your situation and use some target pricing to protect these price levels. Trade is blowing off the fact we are over-bought and it's time to take some precaution. We have an opportunity to lock in good cash prices on old and new crop at the same time and higher corn prices are sure to slow export and ethanol demand (basis). There is still some upside potential to the bean market which will help support corn but that potential still needs to be realized as potential. Brazil's rainy season has arrived on schedule and we need to assume that they will harvest a good enough soy crop and we will likely see a lot of Brazilian acres double cropped into soybeans. The only bullish spin to weather in Brazil is if excess moisture results in a delay in harvest or planting of double crop soy acres. These big trading ranges should narrow going into the report release on Tuesday.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.