1/5/2024

Jan 05, 2024


Corn and soybeans turn in a poor performance to end the first trading week of 2024.  The charts are unattractive and soybeans are extremely oversold from a technical standpoint but there's something to be said about catching a falling knife.  The weekly export sales report appeared to give trade their excuse to continue lower.  Corn and soybean sales were both missed short of their expected ranges but I'm not sure how surprised we should really be about a poor export sales performance on a short week that is stuffed between two major holidays.  Corn sales totaled 367.5k tonnes and soybean sales came in a 201.6k tonnes.  Corn and soybeans were both well into new lows today while oats and the balance of the soy complex also traded extremely weak.  The lone bright spot were some modest gains across the wheat.  At this point, our best chance to put together a sustained rally is for a problem to develop somewhere around the globe that poses a threat to grains.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.