1/5/2024

Jan 05, 2024


Corn and soybeans turn in a poor performance to end the first trading week of 2024.  The charts are unattractive and soybeans are extremely oversold from a technical standpoint but there's something to be said about catching a falling knife.  The weekly export sales report appeared to give trade their excuse to continue lower.  Corn and soybean sales were both missed short of their expected ranges but I'm not sure how surprised we should really be about a poor export sales performance on a short week that is stuffed between two major holidays.  Corn sales totaled 367.5k tonnes and soybean sales came in a 201.6k tonnes.  Corn and soybeans were both well into new lows today while oats and the balance of the soy complex also traded extremely weak.  The lone bright spot were some modest gains across the wheat.  At this point, our best chance to put together a sustained rally is for a problem to develop somewhere around the globe that poses a threat to grains.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.