Grain > Commentary > 1-5-2024

1/5/2024

Jan 05, 2024

Corn and soybeans turn in a poor performance to end the first trading week of 2024.  The charts are unattractive and soybeans are extremely oversold from a technical standpoint but there's something to be said about catching a falling knife.  The weekly export sales report appeared to give trade their excuse to continue lower.  Corn and soybean sales were both missed short of their expected ranges but I'm not sure how surprised we should really be about a poor export sales performance on a short week that is stuffed between two major holidays.  Corn sales totaled 367.5k tonnes and soybean sales came in a 201.6k tonnes.  Corn and soybeans were both well into new lows today while oats and the balance of the soy complex also traded extremely weak.  The lone bright spot were some modest gains across the wheat.  At this point, our best chance to put together a sustained rally is for a problem to develop somewhere around the globe that poses a threat to grains.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
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