Grain > Commentary > 1-5-2021

1/5/2021

Jan 05, 2021

1/5/2021
Fresh buying interest in both soybeans and corn extends the rally another day. The story is much of the same; mixed bullish and bearish signals for corn and beans continue to search for the ration price. On the bull side for corn, strong fresh buying interest from funds and spec money today adding to their net long positions and Argentina's crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Also, the 60 day halt on corn exports out of Argentina creates the possibility of Brazil needing to import US corn. On the bear side, we need to pay attention to declining domestic use for ethanol and feed. An ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids, IA sent out official notice yesterday that they will be halting production. With corn futures close to $5.00 and crude oil relatively inexpensive, I'm positive this will not be an isolated case. Also, higher priced corn this early in the year is sure to send lighter weight cattle and hogs to market. An off trend dip in average live weights will be an indicator on usage. Current Brazil weather is favorable for crops with more precipitation forecasted. This bearish news was shrugged off as some S. American soy production forecasts were trimmed today and we continue the uptrend in search of price to make someone not buy soybeans.

Read More News

9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.