1/5/2021

Jan 05, 2021


1/5/2021
Fresh buying interest in both soybeans and corn extends the rally another day. The story is much of the same; mixed bullish and bearish signals for corn and beans continue to search for the ration price. On the bull side for corn, strong fresh buying interest from funds and spec money today adding to their net long positions and Argentina's crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Also, the 60 day halt on corn exports out of Argentina creates the possibility of Brazil needing to import US corn. On the bear side, we need to pay attention to declining domestic use for ethanol and feed. An ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids, IA sent out official notice yesterday that they will be halting production. With corn futures close to $5.00 and crude oil relatively inexpensive, I'm positive this will not be an isolated case. Also, higher priced corn this early in the year is sure to send lighter weight cattle and hogs to market. An off trend dip in average live weights will be an indicator on usage. Current Brazil weather is favorable for crops with more precipitation forecasted. This bearish news was shrugged off as some S. American soy production forecasts were trimmed today and we continue the uptrend in search of price to make someone not buy soybeans.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.