Grain > Commentary > 1-5-2021

1/5/2021

Jan 05, 2021

1/5/2021
Fresh buying interest in both soybeans and corn extends the rally another day. The story is much of the same; mixed bullish and bearish signals for corn and beans continue to search for the ration price. On the bull side for corn, strong fresh buying interest from funds and spec money today adding to their net long positions and Argentina's crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Also, the 60 day halt on corn exports out of Argentina creates the possibility of Brazil needing to import US corn. On the bear side, we need to pay attention to declining domestic use for ethanol and feed. An ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids, IA sent out official notice yesterday that they will be halting production. With corn futures close to $5.00 and crude oil relatively inexpensive, I'm positive this will not be an isolated case. Also, higher priced corn this early in the year is sure to send lighter weight cattle and hogs to market. An off trend dip in average live weights will be an indicator on usage. Current Brazil weather is favorable for crops with more precipitation forecasted. This bearish news was shrugged off as some S. American soy production forecasts were trimmed today and we continue the uptrend in search of price to make someone not buy soybeans.

Read More News

8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.