Grain > Commentary > 1-5-2021

1/5/2021

Jan 05, 2021

1/5/2021
Fresh buying interest in both soybeans and corn extends the rally another day. The story is much of the same; mixed bullish and bearish signals for corn and beans continue to search for the ration price. On the bull side for corn, strong fresh buying interest from funds and spec money today adding to their net long positions and Argentina's crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Also, the 60 day halt on corn exports out of Argentina creates the possibility of Brazil needing to import US corn. On the bear side, we need to pay attention to declining domestic use for ethanol and feed. An ethanol plant in Cedar Rapids, IA sent out official notice yesterday that they will be halting production. With corn futures close to $5.00 and crude oil relatively inexpensive, I'm positive this will not be an isolated case. Also, higher priced corn this early in the year is sure to send lighter weight cattle and hogs to market. An off trend dip in average live weights will be an indicator on usage. Current Brazil weather is favorable for crops with more precipitation forecasted. This bearish news was shrugged off as some S. American soy production forecasts were trimmed today and we continue the uptrend in search of price to make someone not buy soybeans.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.