1/4/2023

Another sharp sell-off in corn and wheat pressured soybeans to finish 4-9 cents lower on the day. Fund buying tried to sustain higher soybean trade early in the session but was unable to hold. Even after two days of steep losses, March soybeans are trading at the highest levels on record for the date. The USDA confirmed the sale of 124,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year. Brazil corn exports were record volumes beginning in August and through December in 2022. No further evidence or explanation is needed for stagnant U.S. corn exports and a suspected record large Brazilian corn crop. Weekly export inspections were on the low-end of the trading range for corn at 667k tonnes. Soybean shipments were a slight miss at 1.463 million tonnes. Wheat inspections were an all-time low of 86k tonnes. A disappointing report overall but the USDA has been routinely revising previous inspections reports this year, giving these numbers a good chance at improving. Marking year corn shipments are short of the USDA target by 167 million bushels and soybean shipments are 21 million bushels behind the pace. Those deficits continue to shrink.

March corn ended 2022 pinched between its 200-day moving average and overhead trend line resistance. We failed to breakout to the high side and this has triggered some heavy technical selling. I expect 650’0 to be a general area of support.