1/31/2024

Jan 31, 2024


The market gave back some of Tuesday's gains but held relatively well.  We didn't get the follow-through in Soybeans to push us towards the 20-day moving average but wasn't a complete melt down, either.  Some late session buying was able to improve soybeans to finish 3-5 cents higher after trading out to 12 lower.  Technically, the past two sessions have a really nice set up on the charts if we want to see what the top-side of trading range could be.  Corn recovered nicely after trading 4 cents down to finish close to unchanged.  The weekly ethanol report showed some favorable numbers.  Production increased by 173k barrels/day to 991k bpd which would be a return to normal production after several plants cut production due to weather.  With that increase in productions, ethanol stocks decreased week-to-week by 1.5 million barrels, down to 24.3 mln bbls.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.