Grain > Commentary > 1-31-2024

1/31/2024

Jan 31, 2024

The market gave back some of Tuesday's gains but held relatively well.  We didn't get the follow-through in Soybeans to push us towards the 20-day moving average but wasn't a complete melt down, either.  Some late session buying was able to improve soybeans to finish 3-5 cents higher after trading out to 12 lower.  Technically, the past two sessions have a really nice set up on the charts if we want to see what the top-side of trading range could be.  Corn recovered nicely after trading 4 cents down to finish close to unchanged.  The weekly ethanol report showed some favorable numbers.  Production increased by 173k barrels/day to 991k bpd which would be a return to normal production after several plants cut production due to weather.  With that increase in productions, ethanol stocks decreased week-to-week by 1.5 million barrels, down to 24.3 mln bbls.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.