1/31/2023

Jan 31, 2023


1/31/2023
Weaker overnight markets were seen as buying opportunity for the 8:30am crowd.  Corn traded 4 lower overnight before money flowed in on the long side, pushing the March contract to within 1/2 cent of a fresh 3-month high.  The 685-688 area on Mar 23 corn is establishing itself as resistance and defining the top end of our trading range.  Money exited rather quickly and corn was back to lower trade on the front three contracts by noon.  Money flow was similar in soybeans where we traded 9-13 cents lower overnight before the morning buying frenzy sent us to our daily high.  Corn and soybeans both ended the day mixed, all within 1-4 cents of unchanged.  Money is trying to trade Brazil weather and put a bullish spin on a slower soy harvest and safrihna corn planting.  Next week is the USDA's first chance at adjustments to the crop balance sheets since issuing the final production numbers earlier this month.  Corn is likely to remain unchanged but soybeans could see some adjustments to exports.

outlook.png

Read More News

Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.