1/31/2023

Jan 31, 2023


1/31/2023
Weaker overnight markets were seen as buying opportunity for the 8:30am crowd.  Corn traded 4 lower overnight before money flowed in on the long side, pushing the March contract to within 1/2 cent of a fresh 3-month high.  The 685-688 area on Mar 23 corn is establishing itself as resistance and defining the top end of our trading range.  Money exited rather quickly and corn was back to lower trade on the front three contracts by noon.  Money flow was similar in soybeans where we traded 9-13 cents lower overnight before the morning buying frenzy sent us to our daily high.  Corn and soybeans both ended the day mixed, all within 1-4 cents of unchanged.  Money is trying to trade Brazil weather and put a bullish spin on a slower soy harvest and safrihna corn planting.  Next week is the USDA's first chance at adjustments to the crop balance sheets since issuing the final production numbers earlier this month.  Corn is likely to remain unchanged but soybeans could see some adjustments to exports.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.