1/31/2023

Jan 31, 2023


1/31/2023
Weaker overnight markets were seen as buying opportunity for the 8:30am crowd.  Corn traded 4 lower overnight before money flowed in on the long side, pushing the March contract to within 1/2 cent of a fresh 3-month high.  The 685-688 area on Mar 23 corn is establishing itself as resistance and defining the top end of our trading range.  Money exited rather quickly and corn was back to lower trade on the front three contracts by noon.  Money flow was similar in soybeans where we traded 9-13 cents lower overnight before the morning buying frenzy sent us to our daily high.  Corn and soybeans both ended the day mixed, all within 1-4 cents of unchanged.  Money is trying to trade Brazil weather and put a bullish spin on a slower soy harvest and safrihna corn planting.  Next week is the USDA's first chance at adjustments to the crop balance sheets since issuing the final production numbers earlier this month.  Corn is likely to remain unchanged but soybeans could see some adjustments to exports.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.