1/31/2022

Soybeans, meal, and oil all opened higher to begin the Sunday night session with virtually no weakness present in the complex.  Corn followed soybeans throughout the overnight but some weakness set in on the front months going into the coffee break and followed through for the duration of the day session.  The Sep 22 thru Jul 23 contracts did manage to end the day 1-4 cents higher; possibly spread play at work, funds rolling, month end, or a combination of all of the above.  We did set new contract highs for March 22 thru July 22 corn before sharply reversing lower.  Fresh contract highs were traded in most months on beans this morning, as well.  At 8 am this morning, the USDA announced the sale of 129,000 tonnes of soybeans to China, split between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  The weekly export inspections report showed corn, soybeans, and wheat all within trade range expectations.  Corn shipments were 1.036 mln tonnes, soybeans 1.411 mln tonnes, and wheat 361k tonnes.  For the marketing year, current corn export shipment pace is 148 million bushels short of the USDA target, unchanged from last week.  Current soybean shipment pace is 2 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA target, down from 6 million the previous week.  From what we can observe first hand, PNW rail performance continues to be unimpressive.  USDA will need to revise their export expectations at some point (likely lower), but when?