1/30/2024

Jan 30, 2024


A much-needed turn around Tuesday. Soybeans put up a solid reversal higher, coming back from trading 7 lower to finish 24 higher on the day. Corn trade followed soybeans with less excitement and was unable to take out yesterday's high until the final buzzer. Regardless, a stronger showing across the ag commodity sector as a whole. In general, current fundamentals are not friendly. Corn ending stocks are well above 2 billion bushels and the current soybean export pace says we will have more soybeans leftover than what the USDA is currently showing. Just an average growing season in the U.S. is not supportive to our current price levels. What we need is some sort of outside influence to turn the tide and get the managed money crowd interested in shedding their short positions. Today's big market mover was potential military action by the United States overseas. If you've paid attention over the past couple years, the market volatility has provided an education in risk premium and headline trading. We will have to see some serious follow-through on today's action and push through some moving average resistance to manufacture a real rally.

March soybeans finished just above their 10-day moving average and have about 15 cents of room overhead before running into the 20-day moving average. The 20-day is the point of resistance where our previous bounce ran out of steam.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.