Grain > Commentary > 1-3-2024

1/3/2024

Jan 03, 2024

Corn and soybeans lightly spring-boarded back after a set of fresh lows overnight. Soybeans currently have the friendliest set-up on the charts with yesterday's large gap and the moving averages all well above the current trading levels. Corn does have some room in its current trading range to rebound but several points of resistance lie between today's close and what would make for a nice price rally. Soybeans end the day with gains of 1-4 cents and corn finished slightly mixed ranging from fractionally lower to one cent higher. The USDA has not made any 8 a.m. sale announcements for more than two weeks with our most recent sale confirmation coming back on December 19, 2023. Futures spreads over the past two days have been firming/tightening which included some interesting action off the March corn spreads during today's session. There were no rumors of export business today but someone appeared interested in buying the front-end of corn futures.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.