Grain > Commentary > 1-3-2022

1/3/2022

Jan 03, 2022

1/3/2022
Turning the calendar over to 2022 meant risk-on for soybeans and soybean meal.  Corn expressed some strength overnight, once again trading above the 600'0 level.  The weekly export inspections report sucked the bullish air out of the room.  Corn shipments came in on the low end of expectations at 596k tonnes.  The corn export shipment pace is now 166 million bushels below the USDA's target, improving from 175 million bushels the previous week.  With Brazil starting soybean harvest, US soybean exports will begin to wind down and corn will become the logistical focus for exporters.  Pace should continue to improve.  Soybean shipments were below trade target at 1.192 mln tonnes vs a 1.400 mln minimum estimate.  This puts soybean pace at 18 million bushels over the USDA's export target, down from 21 million bushels the previous week.  The negative report triggered a mid-session sell off, turning corn lower for the day and knocking around 25 cents off the beans.  Soybeans recovered nicely off of their daily lows; corn was stuck in the red but did manage to pull itself a nickel off the lows.  It appeared to me like some are still absent from trade with volumes looking similar to the prior two weeks.

Big bearish reversal on corn today with March closing back below the old resistance line near 590’0.   Probably another chance for some $6.00 cash corn, yet, with build-up to next week’s crop production report coming into play soon.   Very little carry on the board with the March, May, July charts all looking similar.  615’0 futures is a realistic/healthy target for pricing.
corn-chart.jpgBrazil and Argentina received some rains over the weekend but “not enough” according to experts.  1370’0-1380’0 is a good pricing target, with an outside chance at $13.50 cash after considering basis.  With Brazil adding acres this season along with good growing conditions for most of the season, I expect stiff resistance at the 1400’0 level if we can get there.
beans.jpg

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.