1/29/2024

The market offered little to get excited about on Monday.  The only fresh headline we had was soybean imports into the U.S. starting a couple months earlier than usual but it was enough for the managed money crowd to go forward with another round of shorting grains and grain spreads.  After tightening to a nickel carry, the March:May soybean spread is back out to 10 cents within a couple sessions.  We also saw a fresh round of 8-month lows on most active soybean contracts.  Weekly export inspection totals were mid-range for both corn and soybeans with 902k tonnes of corn and 890k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week.  Soybean shipment pace slipped further and is now 68 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 53 million bushels behind the prior week.  Corn shipment pace added a little surplus, now 18 million bushels ahead of their required pace versus 17 million last week.  There was some corn export business done last week and corn has a decent shot at hitting the USDA forecast but the concerning part for corn is that while our futures market continues to drive lower, basis has not improved.