1/29/2021

Jan 29, 2021


1/29/2021
Another round of sales to China were announced this morning and it was a BIG one again!  2,108,000 metric tons of corn and 132,000 metric ton of new crop beans.  That is another 77 million bushels of corn making it a total of over 215 million bushels of corn announced to China for the week!  It also sounds like they may be back for more next week.  As I said before buckle in because anything can happen.  We had a 20-cent range in corn today and a 41-cent range in beans.  That is becoming a daily occurrence as of late.  We made new highs on corn today, but closed 6 cents below them.  The charts still look good.  For the week corn was up 47 and beans were up 59.  Weather in South America continues to be ‘good’ now that they have finally broken the drought cycle for much of the region between Argentina and Brazil.  I don't think I can repeat this enough...It is shaping up to be a very interesting year and a volatile one, so start setting pricing targets and goals.  Don’t allow your emotions to get in the way of those goals as these markets continue to have big swings.  This environment feels like the new norm for the balance of the year.  Have a good weekend!
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.