1/28/2021

Jan 28, 2021


1/28/2021
Another wild day in the grain markets today.  We were higher overnight and broke out into new highs on the 8:30 open this morning, as we got another BIG round of export sales.  They announced another 1,700,000 metric tons of corn to China and 213,600 metric ton of corn to Unknown.  That makes it 3,740,000 metric tons of corn to China for the week!  If you do the math on that it equates to 137 MILLION bushels!  That’s a big number and from what I hear there was more done today.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is we finished the day unchanged on corn and down 21 cents in soybeans.  Meal felt like it led the way lower down 10 bucks.  Bean export sales for last week were at 466 mt versus 800-1,400 expected.  Corn export sales were at 1,850 mt versus 900-1,600 expected.  The volatility in this market is absolutely incredible and I don't see that changing for a while.  Beans had a 46 cent range and corn had a 21 cent range today.  There is getting to be more gut checks in a days time as the market continuously shakes the tree allowing nobody to get comfortable.  It never hurts to have orders working,  if there is a price you are comfortable with.  There will be more days like today where the market spikes up and then drop before you can even blink.  Do what is right for your business and make sales as we work higher.  Buckle in!
 

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.