1/28/2021

Jan 28, 2021


1/28/2021
Another wild day in the grain markets today.  We were higher overnight and broke out into new highs on the 8:30 open this morning, as we got another BIG round of export sales.  They announced another 1,700,000 metric tons of corn to China and 213,600 metric ton of corn to Unknown.  That makes it 3,740,000 metric tons of corn to China for the week!  If you do the math on that it equates to 137 MILLION bushels!  That’s a big number and from what I hear there was more done today.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is we finished the day unchanged on corn and down 21 cents in soybeans.  Meal felt like it led the way lower down 10 bucks.  Bean export sales for last week were at 466 mt versus 800-1,400 expected.  Corn export sales were at 1,850 mt versus 900-1,600 expected.  The volatility in this market is absolutely incredible and I don't see that changing for a while.  Beans had a 46 cent range and corn had a 21 cent range today.  There is getting to be more gut checks in a days time as the market continuously shakes the tree allowing nobody to get comfortable.  It never hurts to have orders working,  if there is a price you are comfortable with.  There will be more days like today where the market spikes up and then drop before you can even blink.  Do what is right for your business and make sales as we work higher.  Buckle in!
 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.