1/27/2023

Jan 27, 2023


1/27/2023
Corn and soybeans were quietly higher overnight and spent most of the day session lower in quiet fashion, as well. Corn found some fresh buyers for the March 2023 contract in the final hour of trade. Overall, price action was muted and daily ranges were relatively tight up to that point. Spreads strengthened in corn as we progressed through the week. Those with basis-fixed contracts that would like to extend their marketing window can roll from March to May futures with a net gain of 2 cents at the close today. We haven't had an opportunity like this since military action between Russia and Ukraine began in February of 2022. New crop corn contracts have not performed as well this week making it easy to determine that this week's moves have been money driven by speculators buying the front month. This is money that can leave the market at any moment!

Corn trade overall was strong this week but now we are back into some familiar territory. This is the third time in the past 30 days we have traded in the high 6’s, we have retreated quickly the past 2 times. With money loaded on the front end, this reads susceptible to profit taking to start next week.
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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.