1/27/2021

Jan 27, 2021


1/27/2021
Corn got back to the highs on the overnight trade and right out of the gate on the 8:30 open before fading back to nearly unchanged by 8:35. We had more sales announced to China this morning including 680,000 metric tons of corn, 132,000 metric tons of new crop beans followed by a bean sale to unknown for old crop beans in the amount of 126,500 metric tons. This market feels like we are back in rationing mode and according to these corn sales, we are still not doing enough. The carryout’s continue to get tighter by the day.  We have inverses growing in both markets, which definitely makes things interesting going forward.  Grain was moving today when we were near the highs, but that didn't last long.  Basis feels stronger for both corn and beans today, but we will see if that materializes.  If we break into new highs and grain starts moving again, basis may try and relax some more.  Brazil weather is very wet and causing some delays with early harvest.  There are places that have seen 6-9 inches of rain in southern Brazil, which is also causing a lot of delays at the export facilities.  China might be back for another round of US beans in Feb if that continues, but I don't know how many shuttle quantity sales are left in the country.  Argentina weather has also improved, but took a hind seat to the bulls as recent US business took precedent.
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.