Grain > Commentary > 1-26-2024

1/26/2024

Jan 26, 2024

Grains go into the weekend on a down note.  After rallying 35 cents from Monday through Wednesday, soybeans spent the last two sessions in the red and gave back most of those gains to close the week near unchanged.  Corn spent this week in a slow churn higher but gave back all gains today to also finish unchanged on the week.  We had found some support and buying interest based on South American weather.  Trade has a decent idea of what the crop will be in Brazil but concerns over the conditions in Argentina had trade covering some shorts until an updated forecast appears to be bringing some relief to crops in the country.  This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 100,000 tonnes of soybean meal for delivery to unknown during the 2023/24 marketing year.

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.