Grain > Commentary > 1-26-2023

1/26/2023

Jan 26, 2023

1/26/2023
With technical indicators lining up on the bottom side of our trends and ranges, it was risk on today in corn and soybeans.  General buying was observed in most outside markets today, as well.  If corn can stabilize near the top end of its January trading range, the market may be able to push towards the futures levels traded during harvest but don't expect basis to stay neutral or firm if this happens.  The farmer has become an active seller in this price area over the past month and basis continues to become more defensive.  Volumes were decent on the weekly export sales report.  Corn came in near the middle of its trading range with 910k tonnes sold.  Soybeans were towards the high-end of its estimates at 1.146 million tonnes sold.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 106,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2023/24 marketing year (new crop).
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.