Grain > Commentary > 1-26-2023

1/26/2023

Jan 26, 2023

1/26/2023
With technical indicators lining up on the bottom side of our trends and ranges, it was risk on today in corn and soybeans.  General buying was observed in most outside markets today, as well.  If corn can stabilize near the top end of its January trading range, the market may be able to push towards the futures levels traded during harvest but don't expect basis to stay neutral or firm if this happens.  The farmer has become an active seller in this price area over the past month and basis continues to become more defensive.  Volumes were decent on the weekly export sales report.  Corn came in near the middle of its trading range with 910k tonnes sold.  Soybeans were towards the high-end of its estimates at 1.146 million tonnes sold.  The USDA confirmed the sale of 106,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for the 2023/24 marketing year (new crop).
 

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8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.