Grain > Commentary > 1/26/2022

1/26/2022

Jan 26, 2022

The soy complex carried corn and oats today with beans, meal, and oil all making strong moves higher. A lot of speculation that some export business was completed with CIF bids seeing double digit gains in new crop time slots. Would be great to see some 8am sale announcements in the second half of the week to confirm all the rumors in the first half of this week. Canada's December canola crush report showed a 22% decline from the previous year. Marketing-year-to-date totals trail the previous season by 13%. Weekly export sales report is due out tomorrow morning but any business done this week will be included in next week's report. Corn trade was lifted with spillover strength from soybeans and futures in all classes of wheat were down hard following some significant snowfall totals across Kansas and Colorado, the northern US and parts of Canada receive some snow, as well. The weekly ethanol report showed output off slightly, down 18,000 barrels/day to 1.03 mln bpd. Ethanol stocks were up 884k barrels to 24.48 mln bbls. Ethanol stocks have increased over 18% in the last four weeks and are currently at an all-time high for January and storage space is likely becoming a concern.

The May and July soybean contracts set fresh contract highs today. March soybeans came within 2 cents of the same (1445’4). Overall, the close was strong today, day trade took some profit towards the end of the session but soybeans closed near the highs.
bean-chart.jpg
Weekly continuous March soybean chart: If we are able to manufacture a daily close above our current March 22 contract high, I see 1460’0 as a spot where the market could find some resistance. There is a double top on the chart at that level. A weekly close above 1460’0 would open the door for a run at/above the 1500’0 mark.
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