1/25/2024

Jan 25, 2024


Soybeans were sharply lower today, finishing 10-17 cents in the red after a quick test and fail at the 20-day moving average. Surprisingly, corn held its ground and seemed unaffected by the negative trade in soybeans, finding a bid at 5 lower and improved to close Thursday at 1 cent lower. A combination of the fail at the 20-day, a poor showing on the weekly export sales report, and Brazil harvest were cited as the reason for today's weakness in soybeans. Corn sales totaled 955k tonnes which was near the middle of its expected range. Soybean sales missed low, reported at 561k tonnes. Trade had expected sales to total in the range of 700k-1.2 mln tonnes. Corn sales pace to date shows corn sales exceeding the USDA target by 46 million bushels, down from 58 million bushels the previous week. Soybean pace continues to increase its deficit, now 17 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 12 million bushels last week.

Some nice improvement in moisture conditions over the past month.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.