1/25/2024

Jan 25, 2024


Soybeans were sharply lower today, finishing 10-17 cents in the red after a quick test and fail at the 20-day moving average. Surprisingly, corn held its ground and seemed unaffected by the negative trade in soybeans, finding a bid at 5 lower and improved to close Thursday at 1 cent lower. A combination of the fail at the 20-day, a poor showing on the weekly export sales report, and Brazil harvest were cited as the reason for today's weakness in soybeans. Corn sales totaled 955k tonnes which was near the middle of its expected range. Soybean sales missed low, reported at 561k tonnes. Trade had expected sales to total in the range of 700k-1.2 mln tonnes. Corn sales pace to date shows corn sales exceeding the USDA target by 46 million bushels, down from 58 million bushels the previous week. Soybean pace continues to increase its deficit, now 17 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 12 million bushels last week.

Some nice improvement in moisture conditions over the past month.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.