1/25/2024

Jan 25, 2024


Soybeans were sharply lower today, finishing 10-17 cents in the red after a quick test and fail at the 20-day moving average. Surprisingly, corn held its ground and seemed unaffected by the negative trade in soybeans, finding a bid at 5 lower and improved to close Thursday at 1 cent lower. A combination of the fail at the 20-day, a poor showing on the weekly export sales report, and Brazil harvest were cited as the reason for today's weakness in soybeans. Corn sales totaled 955k tonnes which was near the middle of its expected range. Soybean sales missed low, reported at 561k tonnes. Trade had expected sales to total in the range of 700k-1.2 mln tonnes. Corn sales pace to date shows corn sales exceeding the USDA target by 46 million bushels, down from 58 million bushels the previous week. Soybean pace continues to increase its deficit, now 17 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 12 million bushels last week.

Some nice improvement in moisture conditions over the past month.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.