1/25/2023

Corn higher and beans lower overnight turned into role reversal during the day session. Gains evaporated in corn shortly after 8:30, keeping the commodity trading mostly 1-4 lower through the rest of the day. Soybean buying came in on technical support with the March 23 contract trading lower and perfectly kissing the 50-day moving average before bouncing back and setting intraday highs in the final 1/2 hour of trade. Corn was pushing session lows going into the close. USDA sale announcements have become commonplace lately with another 100,000 tonnes of corn and 130,000 tonnes of soybeans both for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year announced this morning. Weekly ethanol numbers showed production within expectations, increasing 4,000 barrels/day to 1.01 mln bbls. Stocks increased 1.68 million barrels to 25.08 mln bbls, much more than expected. Something not getting immediate attention is a change in the La Nina/El Nino weather patterns potentially shifting to favor crop production in North America this year.

Soybeans have put together a solid uptrend since the end of soybean harvest. Sitting on the bottom of our trend channel, the recent string of sale announcements and current soybean carryout essentially at pipeline, we are in a spot where traders may look to build some length in soy.