1/25/2022

Jan 25, 2022


1/25/2022
Steady overnight trade left corn and soybeans slightly higher going into the coffee break. Commodities were the hot ticket today after yesterday's wild ride in the stock market and indexes. Today's higher finish in corn and soybeans was mostly a direct result of money flowing out of Wall Street. News is mostly routine and any concern about South American weather has suddenly gone silent. There appears to finally be some business getting done on the PNW market with exporters active on the phone today and this could have offered a little extra support to corn today. It will be interesting to see if we get a sale announcement from the USDA. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and with tensions rising on the Ukraine border, wheat was the price leader today with traders expecting sanctions to follow any type of military aggression from the Kremlin. The corn and soybean spreads have been unusually volatile to begin the week. Speculator money pushed corn into an inverse and it appears some of that is beginning to unwind with the corn board moving back towards a flat price.

Other notes:
-The DOW was near unchanged around 1:30pm today after trading a 1400-point range yesterday.

-Lean hog futures have rallied big over the last 7 days and found more to feed the bull after courts delayed California prop 12 for 6 months, spurring another round of fresh contract highs.

-Gold futures have been on a steady climb since mid-December and appear to be on the verge of a bullish breakout.

March corn tested two unique spots of resistance today and failed at both.
First, the daily chart: A bearish price signal with the candle finishing the day as a Gravestone doji with a very large shadow. We touched the overhead line of our trend channel but the bulls appear to be gassed and buying interest is drying up. After tacking on 30 cents in 6 days, a short term correction is needed. Looking for a move back to test support in the 600’0-605’0 area.
chart.jpg

Next, March corn weekly continuous: We started the day trading above our overhead trend line and eased back throughout the day to close below it.  Closing in on a trend line bowtie and expect corn to make a big move before March 2022 expires.
corn-chart-(1).jpg

Read More News

Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.