1/25/2022

Jan 25, 2022


1/25/2022
Steady overnight trade left corn and soybeans slightly higher going into the coffee break. Commodities were the hot ticket today after yesterday's wild ride in the stock market and indexes. Today's higher finish in corn and soybeans was mostly a direct result of money flowing out of Wall Street. News is mostly routine and any concern about South American weather has suddenly gone silent. There appears to finally be some business getting done on the PNW market with exporters active on the phone today and this could have offered a little extra support to corn today. It will be interesting to see if we get a sale announcement from the USDA. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter and with tensions rising on the Ukraine border, wheat was the price leader today with traders expecting sanctions to follow any type of military aggression from the Kremlin. The corn and soybean spreads have been unusually volatile to begin the week. Speculator money pushed corn into an inverse and it appears some of that is beginning to unwind with the corn board moving back towards a flat price.

Other notes:
-The DOW was near unchanged around 1:30pm today after trading a 1400-point range yesterday.

-Lean hog futures have rallied big over the last 7 days and found more to feed the bull after courts delayed California prop 12 for 6 months, spurring another round of fresh contract highs.

-Gold futures have been on a steady climb since mid-December and appear to be on the verge of a bullish breakout.

March corn tested two unique spots of resistance today and failed at both.
First, the daily chart: A bearish price signal with the candle finishing the day as a Gravestone doji with a very large shadow. We touched the overhead line of our trend channel but the bulls appear to be gassed and buying interest is drying up. After tacking on 30 cents in 6 days, a short term correction is needed. Looking for a move back to test support in the 600’0-605’0 area.
chart.jpg

Next, March corn weekly continuous: We started the day trading above our overhead trend line and eased back throughout the day to close below it.  Closing in on a trend line bowtie and expect corn to make a big move before March 2022 expires.
corn-chart-(1).jpg

Read More News

Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.