1/24/2024

Jan 24, 2024


Corn completes its fifth consecutive higher close to some solid gains from 4-6 cents higher. Soybeans traded from 5 cents lower to 5 cents higher throughout the day, ending Wednesday mixed. Spreads for both continue to tighten! It's some odd price action considering there's no rumors of any hot export business. It appears money is interested in buying our front contract months and the good news is there could be some teeth in this turnaround. March soybeans are back above the price levels we were trading on the day of the WASDE report and March corn is back above our report day close. The weekly ethanol report showed production down roughly 22% from the prior week to 818k barrels/day. The cold snap created an interesting scenario where some plants were not able to grind and process corn for ethanol production. Ethanol stocks grew slightly, from 25.7 to 25.8 million barrels.

Like soybeans a few days ago, corn has turned it around. We can assume that our WASDE report is now priced into the market and we can look to the upside for potential targets. The first test for the bulls (if we get there) will be the 20-day moving average which closed near 458’0 today.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.