1/24/2024

Jan 24, 2024


Corn completes its fifth consecutive higher close to some solid gains from 4-6 cents higher. Soybeans traded from 5 cents lower to 5 cents higher throughout the day, ending Wednesday mixed. Spreads for both continue to tighten! It's some odd price action considering there's no rumors of any hot export business. It appears money is interested in buying our front contract months and the good news is there could be some teeth in this turnaround. March soybeans are back above the price levels we were trading on the day of the WASDE report and March corn is back above our report day close. The weekly ethanol report showed production down roughly 22% from the prior week to 818k barrels/day. The cold snap created an interesting scenario where some plants were not able to grind and process corn for ethanol production. Ethanol stocks grew slightly, from 25.7 to 25.8 million barrels.

Like soybeans a few days ago, corn has turned it around. We can assume that our WASDE report is now priced into the market and we can look to the upside for potential targets. The first test for the bulls (if we get there) will be the 20-day moving average which closed near 458’0 today.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.