1/24/2022

Jan 24, 2022


1/24/2022
Markets started the overnight stronger but traded largely weaker heading into the coffee break after trade verified some beneficial rains in South America.  The USDA made an 8 am announcement this morning, confirming two export sales; 150,000 tonnes of corn to unkonwn for 2021/22 and 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China split evenly between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  Corn and soybeans continued their lower trend into the day session, trading daily lows around midday, and were able to bounce back.  Corn closed making fresh highs on the day and soybeans were able to lift themselves 20 cents off of their lows and maintain a close above the 1400 level.  The action in grains was similar to what was seen across other market places with the DOW trading 1400 points lower and crude oil down over $4 at one point throughout today.  We saw characteristics of a panic sell-off across the spectrum today but was met with enough buying to recover a significant portion of losses.  Weekly export inspections were within target but on the low end of estimates for corn and soybeans with 1.116 mln tonnes of corn and 1.298 mln tonnes of soybeans inspected last week.  Current shipment pace has corn 148 million bushels short of meeting the USDA yearly target, shrinking from 155 million bushels the previous week.  Soybean shipments exceed the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast by 6 million bushels, down from 16 million the previous week.  This has been the trend over the past 4-5 weeks and is likely to continue as logistics turn more focus towards shipping corn.

Weather forecast in Brazil continues to improve as we march steadily into their wet season.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.