Grain > Commentary > 1-23-2024

1/23/2024

Jan 23, 2024

Another slow grind for corn while soybeans close higher for the 4th consecutive day.  Corn traded to 5 higher but could not held and faded back to end the day unchanged to 1 higher.  Soybeans enjoyed another round of nice gains that ranged from 8-15 cents higher with a majority coming within the final hour of the session.  March bean spreads also tightened further.  If you have basis-fixed soybeans, we need to be diligent here and study this potential opportunity if you are planning to roll.  Using today's close, it would cost 8 cents to roll to the May contract and is trending in a favorable direction.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today, just some early private estimates for planted acres in 2024.  These estimates showed a modest increase in soybeans and decrease in corn acres.  Nothing to really get the market moving.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.