Grain > Commentary > 1-23-2024

1/23/2024

Jan 23, 2024

Another slow grind for corn while soybeans close higher for the 4th consecutive day.  Corn traded to 5 higher but could not held and faded back to end the day unchanged to 1 higher.  Soybeans enjoyed another round of nice gains that ranged from 8-15 cents higher with a majority coming within the final hour of the session.  March bean spreads also tightened further.  If you have basis-fixed soybeans, we need to be diligent here and study this potential opportunity if you are planning to roll.  Using today's close, it would cost 8 cents to roll to the May contract and is trending in a favorable direction.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today, just some early private estimates for planted acres in 2024.  These estimates showed a modest increase in soybeans and decrease in corn acres.  Nothing to really get the market moving.

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10/9/2026
Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.