Grain > Commentary > 1-23-2024

1/23/2024

Jan 23, 2024

Another slow grind for corn while soybeans close higher for the 4th consecutive day.  Corn traded to 5 higher but could not held and faded back to end the day unchanged to 1 higher.  Soybeans enjoyed another round of nice gains that ranged from 8-15 cents higher with a majority coming within the final hour of the session.  March bean spreads also tightened further.  If you have basis-fixed soybeans, we need to be diligent here and study this potential opportunity if you are planning to roll.  Using today's close, it would cost 8 cents to roll to the May contract and is trending in a favorable direction.  There were no USDA announcements or reports today, just some early private estimates for planted acres in 2024.  These estimates showed a modest increase in soybeans and decrease in corn acres.  Nothing to really get the market moving.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.