1/23/2023

The story of the day was excellent rains across Argentina and Brazil over the weekend. Technicals on the charts were weakening at the end of last week. As grains slipped lower throughout last week, funds were the only willing buyers. This big improvement in South America growing conditions makes lower trade the path of least resistance. Sunday night trade opened with gaps lower on September and December 2023 corn. Most active soybean contracts opened with gaps lower, as well. A 2-cent gap remains to be filled on November soybeans. The USDA confirmed the sale of 192,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown in 2022/2023 marketing year. Weekly export inspections were within trade expectations. Last week, corn shipments totaled 728k tonnes and soybeans shipments totaled 1.806 mln tonnes. Corn shipment pace to date is 148 million bushels behind the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast, little change from the prior week. Soybean shipments are 21 million bushels ahead of the pace needed to meet their USDA target, versus 40 million bushels short last week.

November beans broke lower below trend line support late last week and continue to bleed, include opening gap lower on the chart last night and left a majority of that gap unfilled. Corn and soybeans are oversold on a short term basis and I expect some corrective buying to come in shortly.