1/22/2024

Jan 22, 2024


Corn was quiet on Monday trading only a 4-cent range and finishing fractionally above unchanged on the day. Soybeans offered a little more excitement with 7-11 cent gains and March spreads tightening. After an 8 a.m. sale announcement on Friday, it was rumored that China was potentially in for more business but the USDA did not confirm a sale this morning. U.S. weekly export inspections were okay last week and falling near mid-range of expectations. Corn shipments totaled 713k tonnes and soybeans totaled 1.161 mln tonnes shipped. Corn shipment pace is now 17 million bushels ahead of the USDA target, down from 18 million bushels the previous week. Soybean shipments continue to fall further behind the USDA target, with the deficit increasing to 53 million bushels versus 43 million last week. There is still time to add some soybean business but the U.S. export program for soybeans is typically quiet between now and the new crop period.

Soybeans broke out of their trend channel to the high side. Hopefully the start of some price recovery in soybeans. Remember, we cannot be bullish both futures and basis. Any significant rallies will weaken cash basis further (corn included)!

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.