1/22/2021

Jan 22, 2021


1/22/2021
Not a good day in the grain markets today as the money bails out in a massive way.  Overnight markets were down on news that Boris Johnson says there is some evidence of the new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly.  Then we had some more sales announced this morning along with great export numbers and it felt like we were going to work our way back to unchanged like the previous day’s trade.  Then boom the unthinkable happened....Corn touched limit lower at one point and finished down 24 and beans traded down 65 at one point and finished down 58.  So, what happened, that’s the only question I am getting today.  Well, first off, we needed a correction, so this is healthy, I think.  The timing and no solid reason make it a bit of a surprise.  It's the markets job to keep everyone nervous and on their toes and it is safe to say it's doing a good job of that today!  The other bits of negative news today is that African Swine fever is back in parts of China as they found it in over 1,000 sows so far.  There is more rain forecasted for Argentina early next week, which should complement the rains they had last weekend.  Next week will be an interesting one to see if this correction is over and the market is now satisfied or does it continue.  5.00 corn and 13.00 bean futures might be enough to satisfy a correction.  Buckle in!
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.