1/22/2021

Jan 22, 2021


1/22/2021
Not a good day in the grain markets today as the money bails out in a massive way.  Overnight markets were down on news that Boris Johnson says there is some evidence of the new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly.  Then we had some more sales announced this morning along with great export numbers and it felt like we were going to work our way back to unchanged like the previous day’s trade.  Then boom the unthinkable happened....Corn touched limit lower at one point and finished down 24 and beans traded down 65 at one point and finished down 58.  So, what happened, that’s the only question I am getting today.  Well, first off, we needed a correction, so this is healthy, I think.  The timing and no solid reason make it a bit of a surprise.  It's the markets job to keep everyone nervous and on their toes and it is safe to say it's doing a good job of that today!  The other bits of negative news today is that African Swine fever is back in parts of China as they found it in over 1,000 sows so far.  There is more rain forecasted for Argentina early next week, which should complement the rains they had last weekend.  Next week will be an interesting one to see if this correction is over and the market is now satisfied or does it continue.  5.00 corn and 13.00 bean futures might be enough to satisfy a correction.  Buckle in!
 

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.