1/22/2021

Jan 22, 2021


1/22/2021
Not a good day in the grain markets today as the money bails out in a massive way.  Overnight markets were down on news that Boris Johnson says there is some evidence of the new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly.  Then we had some more sales announced this morning along with great export numbers and it felt like we were going to work our way back to unchanged like the previous day’s trade.  Then boom the unthinkable happened....Corn touched limit lower at one point and finished down 24 and beans traded down 65 at one point and finished down 58.  So, what happened, that’s the only question I am getting today.  Well, first off, we needed a correction, so this is healthy, I think.  The timing and no solid reason make it a bit of a surprise.  It's the markets job to keep everyone nervous and on their toes and it is safe to say it's doing a good job of that today!  The other bits of negative news today is that African Swine fever is back in parts of China as they found it in over 1,000 sows so far.  There is more rain forecasted for Argentina early next week, which should complement the rains they had last weekend.  Next week will be an interesting one to see if this correction is over and the market is now satisfied or does it continue.  5.00 corn and 13.00 bean futures might be enough to satisfy a correction.  Buckle in!
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.