1/22/2021

Jan 22, 2021


1/22/2021
Not a good day in the grain markets today as the money bails out in a massive way.  Overnight markets were down on news that Boris Johnson says there is some evidence of the new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly.  Then we had some more sales announced this morning along with great export numbers and it felt like we were going to work our way back to unchanged like the previous day’s trade.  Then boom the unthinkable happened....Corn touched limit lower at one point and finished down 24 and beans traded down 65 at one point and finished down 58.  So, what happened, that’s the only question I am getting today.  Well, first off, we needed a correction, so this is healthy, I think.  The timing and no solid reason make it a bit of a surprise.  It's the markets job to keep everyone nervous and on their toes and it is safe to say it's doing a good job of that today!  The other bits of negative news today is that African Swine fever is back in parts of China as they found it in over 1,000 sows so far.  There is more rain forecasted for Argentina early next week, which should complement the rains they had last weekend.  Next week will be an interesting one to see if this correction is over and the market is now satisfied or does it continue.  5.00 corn and 13.00 bean futures might be enough to satisfy a correction.  Buckle in!
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.