1/22/2021

Jan 22, 2021


1/22/2021
Not a good day in the grain markets today as the money bails out in a massive way.  Overnight markets were down on news that Boris Johnson says there is some evidence of the new Covid variant in the UK may be more deadly.  Then we had some more sales announced this morning along with great export numbers and it felt like we were going to work our way back to unchanged like the previous day’s trade.  Then boom the unthinkable happened....Corn touched limit lower at one point and finished down 24 and beans traded down 65 at one point and finished down 58.  So, what happened, that’s the only question I am getting today.  Well, first off, we needed a correction, so this is healthy, I think.  The timing and no solid reason make it a bit of a surprise.  It's the markets job to keep everyone nervous and on their toes and it is safe to say it's doing a good job of that today!  The other bits of negative news today is that African Swine fever is back in parts of China as they found it in over 1,000 sows so far.  There is more rain forecasted for Argentina early next week, which should complement the rains they had last weekend.  Next week will be an interesting one to see if this correction is over and the market is now satisfied or does it continue.  5.00 corn and 13.00 bean futures might be enough to satisfy a correction.  Buckle in!
 

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.