1/21/2021

Jan 21, 2021


1/21/2021
Today was a very quiet day as the markets were higher on the overnight, but faded back near unchanged out of the coffee break this morning.  More business got done overnight, but the markets didn't seem to care.  More old crop beans too which surprised me a bit.  136,000 mt of soybeans to China 20/21, 163,290 mt of soybeans to Mexico 20/21, 336,500 mt of corn to unknown 20/21, and 138,000 mt of HRW wheat to Nigeria for 21/22.  Corn and bean bids remain strong out in April, May, June, July.  The front end remains weak as there is enough grain moving to cover the markets needs thru March.  In Brazil, conditions are still be mostly good for crops. There are a few exceptions including northeastern areas that will continue to be too dry, especially from central Minas Gerais through Bahia. In Argentina, rain is still likely to increase in the nation this weekend and especially Monday and Tuesday of next week. The rain will provide some relief from this week’s heat and dryness.  There is definitely some damage that is done, but the rain helps for those crops in pollination stage.  Informa was out today and had corn at 94.244 million acres vs 90.819 last year, soybeans acres at 90.08 million vs 83.084 last year, and other sp wheat 11.490 million vs 12.25 last year.  That gives a you something to think about heading into March intentions.
 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.