1/21/2021

Jan 21, 2021


1/21/2021
Today was a very quiet day as the markets were higher on the overnight, but faded back near unchanged out of the coffee break this morning.  More business got done overnight, but the markets didn't seem to care.  More old crop beans too which surprised me a bit.  136,000 mt of soybeans to China 20/21, 163,290 mt of soybeans to Mexico 20/21, 336,500 mt of corn to unknown 20/21, and 138,000 mt of HRW wheat to Nigeria for 21/22.  Corn and bean bids remain strong out in April, May, June, July.  The front end remains weak as there is enough grain moving to cover the markets needs thru March.  In Brazil, conditions are still be mostly good for crops. There are a few exceptions including northeastern areas that will continue to be too dry, especially from central Minas Gerais through Bahia. In Argentina, rain is still likely to increase in the nation this weekend and especially Monday and Tuesday of next week. The rain will provide some relief from this week’s heat and dryness.  There is definitely some damage that is done, but the rain helps for those crops in pollination stage.  Informa was out today and had corn at 94.244 million acres vs 90.819 last year, soybeans acres at 90.08 million vs 83.084 last year, and other sp wheat 11.490 million vs 12.25 last year.  That gives a you something to think about heading into March intentions.
 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.