1/21/2021

Jan 21, 2021


1/21/2021
Today was a very quiet day as the markets were higher on the overnight, but faded back near unchanged out of the coffee break this morning.  More business got done overnight, but the markets didn't seem to care.  More old crop beans too which surprised me a bit.  136,000 mt of soybeans to China 20/21, 163,290 mt of soybeans to Mexico 20/21, 336,500 mt of corn to unknown 20/21, and 138,000 mt of HRW wheat to Nigeria for 21/22.  Corn and bean bids remain strong out in April, May, June, July.  The front end remains weak as there is enough grain moving to cover the markets needs thru March.  In Brazil, conditions are still be mostly good for crops. There are a few exceptions including northeastern areas that will continue to be too dry, especially from central Minas Gerais through Bahia. In Argentina, rain is still likely to increase in the nation this weekend and especially Monday and Tuesday of next week. The rain will provide some relief from this week’s heat and dryness.  There is definitely some damage that is done, but the rain helps for those crops in pollination stage.  Informa was out today and had corn at 94.244 million acres vs 90.819 last year, soybeans acres at 90.08 million vs 83.084 last year, and other sp wheat 11.490 million vs 12.25 last year.  That gives a you something to think about heading into March intentions.
 

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.