1/20/2021

Jan 20, 2021


1/20/2021
Another day of corrective lower action and profit taking.  Overnight, corn finally filled the gap created a week ago and beans were deep in the red going into the morning break.  Prices snapped back off of their lows at the open with corn gaining back 6 cents and beans gaining back 10 cents within the first 10 minutes of trade.  The underlying support to these markets is impressive as prices improved throughout the day.  Our market correction was validated as we had some export business get stirred up today.  China is now interested in US corn through July and a bean cargo was sold on the PNW.  Some have raised their bean production estimates for Brazil with one firm increasing total production by 1.36 bln bu. (about .25 bu/ac).  There has been an on-going trucker strike in Argentina and it is reported that Brazilian truckers are set to strike Feb 1.  A potential strike during the ramp up of Brazil bean harvest would have an interesting effect on the market and would likely be friendly for US exports.  It is estimated that 70% of old crop corn and 92% of old crop beans in the US are sold.  Domestically, beans are starting to move in odd directions across the country that are rarely seen.  We are comfortable keeping the bin door shut on home run beans, if you have any.  For the time being, our futures targets remain in place. 
 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.