1/20/2021

Jan 20, 2021


1/20/2021
Another day of corrective lower action and profit taking.  Overnight, corn finally filled the gap created a week ago and beans were deep in the red going into the morning break.  Prices snapped back off of their lows at the open with corn gaining back 6 cents and beans gaining back 10 cents within the first 10 minutes of trade.  The underlying support to these markets is impressive as prices improved throughout the day.  Our market correction was validated as we had some export business get stirred up today.  China is now interested in US corn through July and a bean cargo was sold on the PNW.  Some have raised their bean production estimates for Brazil with one firm increasing total production by 1.36 bln bu. (about .25 bu/ac).  There has been an on-going trucker strike in Argentina and it is reported that Brazilian truckers are set to strike Feb 1.  A potential strike during the ramp up of Brazil bean harvest would have an interesting effect on the market and would likely be friendly for US exports.  It is estimated that 70% of old crop corn and 92% of old crop beans in the US are sold.  Domestically, beans are starting to move in odd directions across the country that are rarely seen.  We are comfortable keeping the bin door shut on home run beans, if you have any.  For the time being, our futures targets remain in place. 
 

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.