1/2/2024

We start 2024 with a market offering very little to get excited about. We had another old fashioned hard open at 8:30 and trade was ready to sell after big rains materialized in South America over the long weekend. Corn slipped 3 cents right away and March soybeans gapped lower by 6 cents to open. Weekly export inspections were within the range of expectations and on trend for a holiday week. Corn shipments totaled 570k tonnes and soybeans were reported at 962k tonnes. Shipment pace for corn slipped slightly but remains just 5 million bushels below the USDA target. Soybean shipments are now 36 million bushels behind pace versus 26 million bushels behind last week. The market has not provided much incentive to sell corn since our mid-October rally and as long as exports continue to be routine/quiet and no threats to the crop are present, the market will likely continue to dwindle lower. On a brighter note, early production estimates show Brazil corn production down 10% from last year. The weather has likely hurt their yield but with the added acres, there will not be much effect to their total soy production.

Big gap lower to start 2024. March beans continued to print 6 month lows until it perfectly touched the bottom side of our channel and bounced. Also, soyoil finished with a nice reversal higher on the day. It appears to be a low-risk area to own beans.