Grain > Commentary > 1-19-2024

1/19/2024

Jan 19, 2024

A solid effort was made for a small run higher in corn and soybeans to end the week.  Throughout the overnight session and the first half of the day trade, corn and soybeans had the look of trying to reverse higher out of the short-term trends but the finish left something to be desired.  The USDA made a flash sale announcement this morning for 297,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Trade was also given some confidence to hit the buy button following a strong weekly export sales report.  Corn sales slightly outperformed trade expectations with 1.251 mln tonnes of corn sold last week.  Soybeans were on the upper end of expectations with 781k tonnes sold.  This was exactly what we needed following a couple short holiday weeks that included some less-than-impressive sales.  It should be expected that any type of significant rally will be met with some serious selling from the farmer and basis will get defensive in a hurry.  March corn spreads tightened even further today and it appeared some corn export business may finally be getting completed.

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5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.