Grain > Commentary > 1-19-2024

1/19/2024

Jan 19, 2024

A solid effort was made for a small run higher in corn and soybeans to end the week.  Throughout the overnight session and the first half of the day trade, corn and soybeans had the look of trying to reverse higher out of the short-term trends but the finish left something to be desired.  The USDA made a flash sale announcement this morning for 297,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Trade was also given some confidence to hit the buy button following a strong weekly export sales report.  Corn sales slightly outperformed trade expectations with 1.251 mln tonnes of corn sold last week.  Soybeans were on the upper end of expectations with 781k tonnes sold.  This was exactly what we needed following a couple short holiday weeks that included some less-than-impressive sales.  It should be expected that any type of significant rally will be met with some serious selling from the farmer and basis will get defensive in a hurry.  March corn spreads tightened even further today and it appeared some corn export business may finally be getting completed.

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.