Grain > Commentary > 1-19-2023

1/19/2023

Jan 19, 2023

1/19/2023
After fast tracking to some fresh highs earlier this week, corn and soybeans appeared to begin a corrective move lower today.  The USDA announced some routine business this morning, confirming the sale of 195,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico.  There has been a bit of optimism for corn exports over the past week but if something doesn't change soon, the USDA will have to make more cuts to corn exports from the current 1.925 billion bushels forecasted for this marketing year.  Money is the main driver of the market and a solid improvement in the Argentine weather forecast looks to bring some much-needed moisture to the area.  Combining that change with a soybean harvest that continues to ramp up in Brazil, money leaked out of grains.  Harvest reports out of Brazil are evident of record production, with area yields coming in 10-15% above average.  Weekly ethanol performance showed production increased 65,000 barrels/day to 1.01 million bpd.  Stocks were off 398,000 barrels, down to 23.4 mln bbls.

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5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.