1/19/2023

Jan 19, 2023


1/19/2023
After fast tracking to some fresh highs earlier this week, corn and soybeans appeared to begin a corrective move lower today.  The USDA announced some routine business this morning, confirming the sale of 195,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico.  There has been a bit of optimism for corn exports over the past week but if something doesn't change soon, the USDA will have to make more cuts to corn exports from the current 1.925 billion bushels forecasted for this marketing year.  Money is the main driver of the market and a solid improvement in the Argentine weather forecast looks to bring some much-needed moisture to the area.  Combining that change with a soybean harvest that continues to ramp up in Brazil, money leaked out of grains.  Harvest reports out of Brazil are evident of record production, with area yields coming in 10-15% above average.  Weekly ethanol performance showed production increased 65,000 barrels/day to 1.01 million bpd.  Stocks were off 398,000 barrels, down to 23.4 mln bbls.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.