Grain > Commentary > 1-19-2023

1/19/2023

Jan 19, 2023

1/19/2023
After fast tracking to some fresh highs earlier this week, corn and soybeans appeared to begin a corrective move lower today.  The USDA announced some routine business this morning, confirming the sale of 195,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico.  There has been a bit of optimism for corn exports over the past week but if something doesn't change soon, the USDA will have to make more cuts to corn exports from the current 1.925 billion bushels forecasted for this marketing year.  Money is the main driver of the market and a solid improvement in the Argentine weather forecast looks to bring some much-needed moisture to the area.  Combining that change with a soybean harvest that continues to ramp up in Brazil, money leaked out of grains.  Harvest reports out of Brazil are evident of record production, with area yields coming in 10-15% above average.  Weekly ethanol performance showed production increased 65,000 barrels/day to 1.01 million bpd.  Stocks were off 398,000 barrels, down to 23.4 mln bbls.

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5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.