Grain > Commentary > 1-19-2022

1/19/2022

Jan 19, 2022

1/19/2022
There was rumors that China may be buying 1.5 mmt of US new crop soybean as a gesture of good faith as negotiations begin on the Phase 2 trade deal with US. China fell short of buying agreed US Ag goods under the terms of the Phase 1 trade deal.  Besides the rumors of China buying, managed funds were reported buying US futures as a hedge against inflation.  Argentina is seeing needed rains. Paraguay, W MGDS, W Parana and RGDS Brazil remains dry.  There were rumors that China may be buying 1.5 mmt of US new crop corn as a gesture of good faith.  Russia threat to invade Ukraine, which maybe causing some unrest and moving futures higher.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.