1/18/2024

A slow chop back and forth on either side of unchanged is really the only way to describe trade today. Obviously, the question being asked is "How much farther?" We appeared to be turning the ship around late in the session today but there's not much for the bull side of trade to hang their hats on. Big U.S. yields, favorable conditions in South America, and routine export business for U.S. grains isn't a recipe to spark a rally. The most bullish piece of the equation is the current net short position of the managed money. They've succeeded in extended our trading ranges to the downside but are currently trying to hold a beach ball underwater and most are trying to figure out when they will decide to offset some of that short position. No one wants to be the person that sold right before a quick correction and it is very early in the marketing year for funds to be pushing this type of position. We should get a better opportunity to sell than what we see today but the market also knows, in general, the farmer is sitting full at home and six months from now will be preparing to harvest another crop.

A really nice recovery off of new lows in corn today. If we can sustain a little follow-through buying on Friday, we may be able to say the bleeding has mostly stopped. Only then can we begin looking to the upside for potential price targets.