1/17/2023

Jan 17, 2023


1/17/2023
Corn and soybeans start the week off on a strong note. Both recovered from overnight lows to challenge the nearby highs on the charts from late December. We had a good shot of fresh news today. To start us off, the USDA confirmed sales of 150,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Colombia and 119,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both during the 2022/23 marketing year. We then received our weekly export inspections report where both corn and soybeans exceeded trade expectations with 774k tonnes of corn and 2.075 mln tonnes of soybeans shipped last week. U.S. corn export shipments to date are short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 156 million bushels versus 150 million short last week. Soybean shipments are 40 million bushels behind the pace versus 46 million bushels last week. The NOPA Crush report for December was released today, as well, with slightly negative numbers. Bushels crushed for the month was figured at 175.505 million bushels, below the trade guess of 182.907 mln bu. Soy oil stocks were reported at 1.791 bln lbs, above the trade guess of 1.725 bln.

Key reversal higher today on the corn and soybean charts. Corn is looking like it has finally broken out of its wedge to the high side. If money follows-through, $6.75-6.80 cash corn could be possible in the near future. Have your sell-orders working!
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.