Jan 16, 2024

Our first full session following our updated crop balance sheets was very choppy but ended with grains and soy virtually all lower on the day. Soybean meal completed a nice bounce higher and soybeans were mixed, improving 1-3 cents out to the August 24 contract. The USDA confirmed a sale at 8 a.m. this morning. This sale was for 126,700 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year. Weekly export inspections were within their expected trading ranges and at average volumes for the week. 876k tonnes of corn and 1.264 mln tonnes of soybeans were shipped last week. The NOPA Crush report for December was also released today and showed an all-time record with 195.328 mln bushels of soybeans crushed in December. This was well above the average trade guess of 193.12 mbu. Soyoil stocks came in high at 1.36 billion pounds. Marketing year-to-date crush is up roughly 6% from last year. This friendly report is likely what helped soybeans pull themselves out of lower trade around mid-day.

Even if we continue lower past Friday’s low, it is impressive that corn finished down only 10 cents that day. Given how largely negative that report was, a limit lower move would not have been a big surprise. Until managed money shows an interest in no longer selling corn, the path of least resistance will continue to be lower.

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