Grain > Commentary > 1-12-2024

1/12/2024

Jan 12, 2024

The USDA did not pull any punches when it came to the January WASDE and shocked the market with a record yield for the U.S. corn crop.  The USDA did what it could to soften the blow on the corn ending stocks.  First, by cutting 600,000 off of the acres harvested and then increasing most of the usage categories.  If it wasn't for those changes, the balance sheet rockets to a 2.4 bln bushels of ending stocks in corn.  Soybean numbers weren't as negative but a 0.7 bu/ac uptick in yield results in our ending stocks going to a not-as-tight 280 million bushels, up from 245 million bushels in our previous report.  Just last fall, 23/24 soybean ending stocks were estimated down near 200 million bushels.  Soybeans traded their lowest levels in two years following the report but had recovered nicely going into the close.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.