Grain > Commentary > 1-12-2024

1/12/2024

Jan 12, 2024

The USDA did not pull any punches when it came to the January WASDE and shocked the market with a record yield for the U.S. corn crop.  The USDA did what it could to soften the blow on the corn ending stocks.  First, by cutting 600,000 off of the acres harvested and then increasing most of the usage categories.  If it wasn't for those changes, the balance sheet rockets to a 2.4 bln bushels of ending stocks in corn.  Soybean numbers weren't as negative but a 0.7 bu/ac uptick in yield results in our ending stocks going to a not-as-tight 280 million bushels, up from 245 million bushels in our previous report.  Just last fall, 23/24 soybean ending stocks were estimated down near 200 million bushels.  Soybeans traded their lowest levels in two years following the report but had recovered nicely going into the close.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.