1/12/2024

The USDA did not pull any punches when it came to the January WASDE and shocked the market with a record yield for the U.S. corn crop.  The USDA did what it could to soften the blow on the corn ending stocks.  First, by cutting 600,000 off of the acres harvested and then increasing most of the usage categories.  If it wasn't for those changes, the balance sheet rockets to a 2.4 bln bushels of ending stocks in corn.  Soybean numbers weren't as negative but a 0.7 bu/ac uptick in yield results in our ending stocks going to a not-as-tight 280 million bushels, up from 245 million bushels in our previous report.  Just last fall, 23/24 soybean ending stocks were estimated down near 200 million bushels.  Soybeans traded their lowest levels in two years following the report but had recovered nicely going into the close.