1/12/2023

Jan 12, 2023


1/12/2023
The big report dropped at 11 a.m. and brought some fireworks with it.  USDA raised corn yield by one full bushel and lowered corn exports by 150 million bushels.  Surprising trade was the cut to harvested corn acres, which was lowered by 1.6 million acres.  The numbers trickled down the balance sheet to a small net change lower to corn ending stocks.  The soybean side of the report was expected to be mostly white noise but the USDA surprised the market with cuts of 0.7 bu/ac in yield and 0.3 mln harvested acres.  The weekly export sales held the market in check prior to 11 a.m. with another poor showing.  Corn sales were a miss at 256k tonnes and soybeans were mid-range at 717k tonnes.  Corn sales were short of the pace needed to meet the USDA's target by 342 million bushels and soybean sales matched the pace needed to meet their target using the export forecasts prior to 11 a.m.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.