1/12/2022

Jan 12, 2022


1/12/2022
Today was a huge report day.  Look below for a summary of the USDA's huge data dump.  We did have two 8am sale announcements this morning that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2022/23 and 100,00 tonnes of corn to unknown for 2021/22.

Nothing changed domestically to light a fire under the market either direction.  USDA found a few more corn acres.  Added ethanol use was washed out by trimming exports.  Ending stocks grew.

corn.jpg
Soybean acres trimmed minimally, 51.4 average yield is second largest all-time.  Domestic soy supply continues to grow.   Really feels like trade is all on one side of the fence and just want to ignore anything negative.
beans.jpgCorn and soybean stocks all increased from one year ago.  Wheat stocks down sharply.
stocks.jpgSouth American production is where the market found support.  The USDA coming in below 140.0 for Brazil soy production was a surprise.
SA-rain.jpg

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.