1/12/2022

Jan 12, 2022


1/12/2022
Today was a huge report day.  Look below for a summary of the USDA's huge data dump.  We did have two 8am sale announcements this morning that included 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for 2022/23 and 100,00 tonnes of corn to unknown for 2021/22.

Nothing changed domestically to light a fire under the market either direction.  USDA found a few more corn acres.  Added ethanol use was washed out by trimming exports.  Ending stocks grew.

corn.jpg
Soybean acres trimmed minimally, 51.4 average yield is second largest all-time.  Domestic soy supply continues to grow.   Really feels like trade is all on one side of the fence and just want to ignore anything negative.
beans.jpgCorn and soybean stocks all increased from one year ago.  Wheat stocks down sharply.
stocks.jpgSouth American production is where the market found support.  The USDA coming in below 140.0 for Brazil soy production was a surprise.
SA-rain.jpg

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.