Grain > Commentary > 1-12-2021

1/12/2021

Jan 12, 2021

1/12/2021
There's always a chance a USDA report could contain a surprise and the WASDE report released today didn't disappoint. We had an 8am sale announcement of 120,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown. Comparatively speaking, trade was mostly subdued with corn trading unchanged to 3 higher and beans 5 to 15 cents higher prior to the report release but that all changed once the clock read 11 a.m. Today's report was friendly for corn as we saw a carryout posted of a 1.552 billion bushel carryout vs 1.599 expected. The biggest surprise of the report was the average corn yield of 172 bu/ac with an expected number of 175.3. I've mentioned my concern of a cut in ethanol use and exports as a result of sharply higher corn prices and today's report did reduce the expected corn use for ethanol and exports by roughly 200 million bu. If prices continue to trend higher, larger reductions in both of these should be expected. The soybean yield, production, and ending stock numbers were right on target with trade expectations giving the bulls the green light to continue their run. Today's report answered a lot of our questions today and it is comforting that we finally have some validation to our month-long corn rally.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.