Grain > Commentary > 1-11-2024

1/11/2024

Jan 11, 2024

Thursday's session was a long, slow grind and it appeared most had opted to sit on the sidelines one day ahead of the USDA report.  The price action we did see was some basic positioning trade.  For the first time since December 19, the USDA made a flash sale announcement this morning.  This confirmed sale was for 175,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  The only other item of note today was the weekly net export sales report and it didn't really offer us much.  Corn sales were on the low-end of expectations with 488k tonnes sold and soybeans sales were a miss at 280k tonnes.  Trade does not expect to see much of a shakeup in numbers for tomorrow's report and pre-report estimates are mostly priced in so if we do see a drop in U.S. or South American crop production from the USDA, it may not ignite the rally you expect to see. 

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.