1/11/2023

A largely quiet day across the grain markets with relatively small ranges. Trade tried to rally for a move higher during the overnight session. After the 8:30 open, corn and soybeans fell back into some briefly lower trade before finishing the day in mixed fashion with modest gains on the front end. The USDA confirmed another soybean sale this morning, this time for 124,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year. Analysts are expecting a slightly negative report tomorrow for corn with a cut to exports and a bump in yield. Not much is seen changing on the soybean balance sheet. A small increase in yield is expected to trickle down to an increase in the 2022/23 ending stocks. Weekly ethanol data showed output was up 99,000 barrels/day to 943,000 bpd and stocks off 644,000 barrels to 23.8 mln bbls. Corn use for ethanol is estimated at 1.799 billion bushels for the current marketing year-to-date. This is down 6.4% from the previous year and 25 million bushels below the pace needed to meet the USDA target for the year.

March corn settles near the middle of its 7 month range going into tomorrow’s final production report. This long-term tightening/coiling pattern will produce a large break-out in either direction.