Grain > Commentary > 1-11-2023

1/11/2023

Jan 11, 2023

1/11/2023
A largely quiet day across the grain markets with relatively small ranges. Trade tried to rally for a move higher during the overnight session. After the 8:30 open, corn and soybeans fell back into some briefly lower trade before finishing the day in mixed fashion with modest gains on the front end. The USDA confirmed another soybean sale this morning, this time for 124,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2022/23 marketing year. Analysts are expecting a slightly negative report tomorrow for corn with a cut to exports and a bump in yield. Not much is seen changing on the soybean balance sheet. A small increase in yield is expected to trickle down to an increase in the 2022/23 ending stocks. Weekly ethanol data showed output was up 99,000 barrels/day to 943,000 bpd and stocks off 644,000 barrels to 23.8 mln bbls. Corn use for ethanol is estimated at 1.799 billion bushels for the current marketing year-to-date. This is down 6.4% from the previous year and 25 million bushels below the pace needed to meet the USDA target for the year.

March corn settles near the middle of its 7 month range going into tomorrow’s final production report. This long-term tightening/coiling pattern will produce a large break-out in either direction.
corn-chart.png

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.