Grain > Commentary > 1-11-2021

1/11/2021

Jan 11, 2021

1/11/2021
Tomorrow is report day and all our questions will be answered.  This is a very important report with a massive amount of risk as the markets have been doing nothing but trading higher.  Buckle in for the ride as you just never know whats going to happen.  Corn and beans were higher overnight, but turned lower instantly out of the coffee break.  The selling was most likely profit taking ahead of the report as the funds likely took some money off the table.  Beans traded as much as 15 lower at one point before someone bought the break once again.  The USDA announced two export sales this morning, 132,000 MT’s of soybeans to China and 108,000 MT’s of corn to Columbia. Tomorrow estimates for the report are as follows:  The final corn yield is estimated at 175.3, down about a half a bushel from Dec.  The final bean yield is estimated at 50.5, down .2 from Dec.  Corn stocks are estimated at 11.951 billion.  Bean stocks are estimated at 2.920 billion  Corn carryout is estimated at 1.599, down from 1.702 billion in Dec.  Bean carryout is estimated at 139 million, down from 175 million in Dec.  I am guessing we go back to trading Argentina weather after this report in which they got some rain over the weekend, but the forecast looks fairly dry. 

Read More News

5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.
3/11/2025
Mar 11, 2025
The monthly USDA WASDE report was today and it was about as boring as it can get.  The USDA took the month off leaving corn and beans carryouts unchanged.  Corn remains at 1.540 billion bushels and beans at 380 million bushels.  World ending stocks were slightly lowered on both corn and beans.  World corn was pegged at 288.94 million tonnes vs 290.3 million tonnes previously.  World beans were pegged at 121.4 million tonnes vs 124.3 million tonnes previously.  All of the South American crop production estimates were also left unchanged.