Grain > Commentary > 1-10-2024

1/10/2024

Jan 10, 2024

Some small signs of life were present in the market today but trade just couldn't hold corn and soybeans higher all the way into the close.  Corn ends the day virtually unchanged but March spreads continued on their recent trend of tightening.  It appears that some corn business was unofficially confirmed done today after it was rumored late yesterday.  Price action was terribly poor in soybeans today.  Buyers attempted to buy the dip shortly after the 8:30 market open which rallied us roughly 10 cents off that low.  This fresh money was washed out by the close today as trade took a round trip back to the same price levels we opened the day session with.  The weekly ethanol report showed a small increase in production of 13,000 barrels/day to 1.062 mln bpd.  Stocks grew by 800,000 barrels to 24.4 million barrels; this is an 8-month high.  Marketing year corn use for ethanol is approximately 6.7% ahead of last year's pace.  The USDA will likely need to increase their demand number for ethanol on the balance sheet.

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.