Grain > Commentary > 1-10-2024

1/10/2024

Jan 10, 2024

Some small signs of life were present in the market today but trade just couldn't hold corn and soybeans higher all the way into the close.  Corn ends the day virtually unchanged but March spreads continued on their recent trend of tightening.  It appears that some corn business was unofficially confirmed done today after it was rumored late yesterday.  Price action was terribly poor in soybeans today.  Buyers attempted to buy the dip shortly after the 8:30 market open which rallied us roughly 10 cents off that low.  This fresh money was washed out by the close today as trade took a round trip back to the same price levels we opened the day session with.  The weekly ethanol report showed a small increase in production of 13,000 barrels/day to 1.062 mln bpd.  Stocks grew by 800,000 barrels to 24.4 million barrels; this is an 8-month high.  Marketing year corn use for ethanol is approximately 6.7% ahead of last year's pace.  The USDA will likely need to increase their demand number for ethanol on the balance sheet.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.