1/10/2023

Jan 10, 2023


1/10/2023
Trade has been focused on positioning ahead of Thursday's big data dump. Corn and soybeans were largely weak overnight and came off of lows as money tries to get the market to move. Both also enjoyed relatively large ranges on the day and finished mixed within a few cents of unchanged. Corn saw around 9-16 cent ranges while soybeans traveled roughly 19-25 cents between their daily highs and lows. Overall, it was a weak finish on the day. The charts continue to coil/tighten, priming us for a sizeable breakout following Thursday's report numbers. This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 174,181 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year. The PNW remains extremely quiet but corn bids out of the gulf jumped overnight. The assumption is some sizeable export business is getting done but corn needs more if we want to keep these price levels supported. A degrade of growing conditions in South America, outside of Argentina, would also be helpful.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.