Grain > Commentary > 1-10-2023

1/10/2023

Jan 10, 2023

1/10/2023
Trade has been focused on positioning ahead of Thursday's big data dump. Corn and soybeans were largely weak overnight and came off of lows as money tries to get the market to move. Both also enjoyed relatively large ranges on the day and finished mixed within a few cents of unchanged. Corn saw around 9-16 cent ranges while soybeans traveled roughly 19-25 cents between their daily highs and lows. Overall, it was a weak finish on the day. The charts continue to coil/tighten, priming us for a sizeable breakout following Thursday's report numbers. This morning, the USDA confirmed the sale of 174,181 tonnes of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year. The PNW remains extremely quiet but corn bids out of the gulf jumped overnight. The assumption is some sizeable export business is getting done but corn needs more if we want to keep these price levels supported. A degrade of growing conditions in South America, outside of Argentina, would also be helpful.

drought-monitor.png

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.