1/10/2022

Jan 10, 2022


1/10/2022
Sometimes the market becomes too "obvious."  Opening calls for Sunday night were higher but a lower open spurred liquidation.  There was broad macro sell-off today including not only ag commodities but oil, gold, stocks and indexes, as well.  The DOW traded around 600 lower and the NASDAQ about 400 lower at one time today.  We did have an 8am sale announcement this morning with the USDA confirming the sale of 132,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 77k tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year and 55k tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections were mid-range for corn with 1.023 million tonnes inspected for shipment, soybean inspections were below the minimum estimate with 905k tonnes inspected.  As of now, corn shipment pace falls short of the USDA target by 150 million bushels, improving from the 175 million bushels mark two weeks ago.  Soybean shipments exceed the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 10 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels two weeks ago and 18 million bushels last week.  With last year's South American weather story, many experts expected Brazil to be importing corn at this point but they continue to ship corn out at a steady pace.  Big report day on Wednesday that includes the monthly WASDE and quarterly grain stocks reports.  Always recommend having sell orders working on report days. 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.