1/10/2022

Jan 10, 2022


1/10/2022
Sometimes the market becomes too "obvious."  Opening calls for Sunday night were higher but a lower open spurred liquidation.  There was broad macro sell-off today including not only ag commodities but oil, gold, stocks and indexes, as well.  The DOW traded around 600 lower and the NASDAQ about 400 lower at one time today.  We did have an 8am sale announcement this morning with the USDA confirming the sale of 132,000 tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 77k tonnes in the 2021/22 marketing year and 55k tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year.  Weekly export inspections were mid-range for corn with 1.023 million tonnes inspected for shipment, soybean inspections were below the minimum estimate with 905k tonnes inspected.  As of now, corn shipment pace falls short of the USDA target by 150 million bushels, improving from the 175 million bushels mark two weeks ago.  Soybean shipments exceed the pace needed to hit the USDA target by 10 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels two weeks ago and 18 million bushels last week.  With last year's South American weather story, many experts expected Brazil to be importing corn at this point but they continue to ship corn out at a steady pace.  Big report day on Wednesday that includes the monthly WASDE and quarterly grain stocks reports.  Always recommend having sell orders working on report days. 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.