Grain > Commentary

3/11/2022

Mar 11, 2022

The higher fuel market has increased the cost of freight dramatically, which is why you see the difference in the cash spread between our locations. Hopefully this fuel market comes back to reality soon. Unfortunately, we need to cover the increased cost. Today's price action was much more subtle to end the week. Grains traded mostly lower overnight but rallied back towards unchanged throughout the day with what appeared to be very disciplined buying,

3/10/2022

Mar 10, 2022

The market sold off yesterday after the USDA WASDE report put up "friendly-but-not-as-friendly-as-we-wanted" numbers for trade.  Today, they had reason to buy back in with Brazil's CONAB making cuts to their expected soybean production and export numbers.  Trade was also emboldened by the weekly net export sales report which showed strong numbers for old crop, especially corn.

3/9/2022

Mar 10, 2022

The market already had premium priced in ahead of the WASDE report so an overall neutral/slightly bearish report triggered risk off. There was also some pressure from outside markets with crude oil putting up big reversals on the charts, trading over $20/barrel lower today, but did recover from lows.

3/8/2022

Mar 08, 2022

What used to be referred to as "unprecedented market moves" or "black swan events" are now simply day trade in our commodities.  Extreme volatility has made a tool that was meant to be used as a way to manage risk much riskier than the actual cash grain transaction.  By recent standards, trade was relatively calm through most of the day. 

3/7/2022

Mar 07, 2022

The Sunday night commodity futures trade was wild.  Crude oil gapped $6 higher on the open, corn opened 20 higher, soybeans opened 26 higher, gas traded to 35 cents higher overnight and set new all-time highs.  Market sentiment is typically the most bullish at the top and we may look back in a month or two and see this week as when we finally blew the top off of some of these markets.

3/4/2022

Mar 04, 2022

WOW!  What else is there to say after this week?  Volatility was off the charts, corn spreads went insane, cash grain movement was huge.  The only thing that is making perfect sense in this market is the inverted relationship between futures and basis.  One of the basic rules of economics is beginning to show: an increase in price will result in a decrease in demand (high prices cure high prices). 

3/3/2022

Mar 03, 2022

Fundamentals remain mostly unchanged but dynamic money flow and volatility continue to maintain their strangleholds on the market.  Spec dollars continue to push the May/July 2022 corn spread even wider, trading out to a 52'4 cent inverse at one point today.  A quick glance around the region shows almost every cash corn bid has moved to the July futures practically overnight.

3/2/2022

Mar 02, 2022

The big volatility in corn and soybeans continues with today's market featuring a 35-cent range in corn and 50 cent range in soybeans on the May 2022 contracts. Soybeans traded in the green for a small portion of the overnight session but trended lower on the day and finished deep in the red with money choosing to offset some length. Corn spreads have gone deeply inverted with money choosing to buy the May 22 contract almost exclusively.

3/1/2022

Mar 01, 2022

The market made another run higher today with corn bursting through, and closing well above, the 700 level and soybeans once again knocking on the door of 1700 futures.  Most commodity futures are currently inverted with heavy risk premiums on the front end.  Trade is already beginning to speculate the issues that may come with Ukrainian ag production this year.

2/28/2022

Feb 28, 2022

Opening calls for Sunday night were sharply higher after a weekend that offered no market stabilizing news or headlines. The saying goes "buy the rumor, sell the fact" and trade was all about adding length to positions as those active in the market continue to assume Ukrainian ag exports will be shut down for some time.

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