Grain > Commentary

10/19/2020

Oct 19, 2020

Corn and beans were higher today on another round announced export sales this morning.  We had 123,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico and 345,000 metric tons of corn to Unknown (Likely China).  This export market is setting up to be a monster as it gets better by the day.  There remains a lot of chatter that China will need to buy a greater amount of US corn and beans as South America may have over shipped short term.  Stay tuned on that front, but make sure you keep in mind that it is an election year and anything can happen.  We will get an updated look at harvest progress this afternoon as it should have been a solid week.

10/14/2020

Oct 14, 2020

China showed up on the sales today and the markets rebounded on the news.  They announced 264,000 metric ton of beans to China and 420,000 metric ton of corn to China.  Corn spreads went crazy on the news with Dec - July finishing at 9 cents carry.  That doesn't feel right with a 2.1 million carryout and an export that is front loaded with bean business through December.  Who wants the corn right away besides Ethanol when harvest is over?  The farmer is a reluctant seller at the moment on his corn crop as the bean sales covered the need for cash. 

10/13/2020

Oct 13, 2020

We had one sale announcement this morning, which was 110,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico.  It felt a bit disappointing that there were no China sales announced as they came out of their holiday.  Corn and beans bounced some today after yesterday's correction, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit more of a correction to the downside.  The 10.20 futures area looks to be a short-term target area to the downside, with 9.80 longer term. 

10/12/2020

Oct 12, 2020

Today turned out to be correction day.  We got a friendly report on Friday and were unable to make new highs today.  We finished right at support at 10.33 November futures.  The next level of support is 10.23.  Corn has a ways to go to hit support at 3.83 and 3.76 December futures.  The main reason for the correction today seems to be added rain in the forecast for Brazil.  It doesn't take much to drop the market like this when the funds are at record lengths and taking profits.  With that being said do I think the bean market is over?  I doubt it.

10/9/2020

Oct 09, 2020

Today was another wild day as the market kept the bull trend alive.  The USDA brought the bean carryout all the way down to 290 million, which seemed very friendly to the initial trade.  Beans traded up 32 on the initial reaction, then back to only up 6 in a matter of minutes, to finish back up 17.  They put bean exports up 75 million.  Bean yield was left unchanged at 51.9 bpa.  $10.00 cash bean orders filled today if you had orders working.  On the corn side it was a fairly neutral report.  Corn carryout was put at 2.167 billion carryout. 

10/8/2020

Oct 08, 2020

We had more bean exports announced this morning which included 374,000 MT to China, 152,404 MT to Mexico and 132,000 MT to unknown destinations.  This is good news for continued demand with China just coming out of their Holiday.  These sales added fuel to the fire this morning as the bean story continues to explode.  There is a lot of unknowns at this point with tomorrows USDA report, South American weather, Covid, and elections in less than a month.  I cannot stress enough that this market is at a dangerous point. 

10/7/2020

Oct 07, 2020

The markets were wild again today as the bean story continues to heat up.  Beans put in a new high for the move today at 10.5975 before once again fading into the close.  The market continues to tell everyone that it wants the beans in November, December, and January and is inverting hard in the deferred months and Nov to May is now at a 26-cent inverse.  Bean space in the elevators systems are getting very tight as I am hearing about lots of ground piles.  As you saw yesterday, I decided to go to cash only on soybeans for the time being on future deliveries.

10/6/2020

Oct 06, 2020

The grain markets start out strong overnight and never looked back.  The main talk is about Brazil be too dry heading into their planting season, which is putting them behind on their normal planting pace.  This has been talked about a little bit, but now it’s getting more press and could become an issue.  There were also rumor of more upcoming China bean purchases, so we will wait and see if that comes true.  There was also another sale of 154,400 metric ton of beans to unknown this morning. 

10/2/2020

Oct 02, 2020

More Covid-19 concerns overnight at President Trump and his wife were announced to have tested positive.  That had all the markets trading sharply lower overnight, but recovered from their lows into the close today.  We had more bean sales announced this morning of 264,000 metric tons of beans to China and 252,000 metric tons to Unknown.  That was encouraging with China heading into Holiday and got the bean market to bounce into green figures for a while this morning before fading and finishing down 3 cents.  Corn also got back to unchanged at one point this morning before finishing down 3.

9/30/2020

Sep 30, 2020

Report day didn't disappoint as the USDA throws us a shocker.  Bean stocks were pegged at 523 million vs an average guess of 576 million.  Corn stocks were pegged at 1.995 billion vs the average guess of 2.250 billion.  There may be more questions than answers after this report, but there is no doubt this will make the Oct 9th WASDE report very interesting!  The volatility will continue into October as harvest will be in full swing.  Trying to dig through the details of this report is very confusing. 

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