AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market 5 Cents Higher on Planting Delays

May 20, 2019

Corn futures are trading 1 to 5 cents higher this morning, again led by the old crop contracts. They ended as much as 4 1/4 cents higher on Friday. Preliminary open interest rose 26,421 contracts on Friday. Nearby July was up a strong 8.96% for the week. The buying was tied to slow planting progress and the potential impacts on either final acreage or yield. As of May 14, the managed money net short position in corn futures and options was still at 282,918 contracts according to CFTC data. US exports as of May 9 were 63% of the USDA projection for 18/19, matching the average pace. The total commitments, however, are just 80% of that projection vs the 92% average, as unshipped sales are lagging. A total of 138,000 MT of corn was bought in separate South Korean tenders on Friday, with US and South America listed as optional origins. Trade ideas for planting progress are in the 48-55% range for tonight’s NASS report, which would be well below the 82% average for this date.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Recover Half of Friday Losses Overnight

May 20, 2019

Soybean futures are 8 to 10 cents higher this morning. They were hit hard on Friday, with the front months down 17 to 18 1/4 cents. Traders are nervous about more acres switching from corn to soybeans. July soybeans were up 1.54% for the week despite the Friday sell off, with meal 2.44% higher. July soy meal was down $7.60/ton, with soybean oil 50 points lower. Commitment of Traders data shows managed money spec funds adding 8,282 contracts to their record net short position of 168,835 contracts in the week ending May 14. USDA data from Thursday shows total export commitments at 94% of the 18/19 projected total, down from the 98% average. Export shipments are 69% of that projection, with the average at 87% and last year (which had a robust fourth quarter) at 79%. Traders are expecting USDA to show 28 to 30% of the US soy crop planted as of May 19. That would still be behind the 44% average pace.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market Double Digits Higher on KS Rain Forecast

May 20, 2019

Wheat futures are 8 to 10 cents higher in the Chicago and MPLS contracts this morning. KC HRW is up 12 to 14 cents on concerns about disease development in these unusually wet conditions. On Friday, the CBT contracts were 1-2 cents lower. Chicago July was up 9.48% last week. KC slipped from the highs but was firm to 3 1/2 cents higher on Friday, with front month July 8.59% in the green on the week. MPLS was steady to 2 cents higher on Friday, with a 2.08% rise since last Friday. Trade ideas for spring wheat planting progress are in the 65-70% range, still lagging the 81% average for this date. Canadian planting progress has not been impacted as much. Spec traders in KC wheat futures and options trimmed back last week’s record CFTC net short position by 2,442 contracts, showing a net position of 56,424 as of May 14. Total unshipped old crop US wheat sales now total 3.517 MMT, with 3 reporting weeks left in the MY. Total commitments are up 8.8% from last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Seen Steady to Higher

May 20, 2019

Live cattle futures posted 80 cent to $1.80 gains in most contracts on Friday. USDA indicated that Japan has agreed to lift the 30-month age restriction on beef imports from the US. Feeder cattle futures were 30 cents higher in nearby May, with other contracts $2 to $2.625 higher. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents to $132.76 on May 16. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 75 cents at $220.31 with Select boxes 40 cents higher @ $208.28. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 660,000 head through Saturday. That was down 11,000 head from the previous week and 8,000 below the same week last year. Cash sales were $115-117 last week. Money managers in live cattle futures and options liquidated 17,405 contracts from their CFTC net long position in the week ending May 14, leaving them still net long 87,296 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Waiting For Confirmation of More Sales

May 20, 2019

Lean Hog futures closed the Friday session with front months 15 to 65 cents higher and deferred contracts lower. Later in the day, it was reported the US was lifting tariffs on Mexican and Canadian steel, with the trade hoping for Mexican reductions on pork tariffs in response. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 53 cents from the previous day @ $84.21 on May 15. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 86 cents at $85.27 on Friday afternoon. The national average base hog was 10 cents higher on Friday, at an average weighted price of $81.48. Estimated weekly FI hog slaughter was 2.371 million head including Saturday. That was 30,000 head below the previous week but 32,000 above the same week last year. --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Steady Overnight With No China News

May 20, 2019

Cotton futures are trading 3 points lower to 17 higher in thin action. They ended Friday 71 to 131 points lower. July was down 3.59% Friday to Friday, with the two week drop at 12.89%. CFTC data on Friday afternoon showed specs in cotton futures and options at their largest reported net short position since Feb 2007 at 24,828 contracts as of Tuesday. USDA’s Export Sales data on Thursday show upland cotton shipments 67% of the projected total, with the normal pace at 75%. Total commitments are now 104% of that total, with the average at 100% for this week. The Cotlook A index for May 16 was down 50 points from the previous day to 76.85 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com